Welcome to Words with Wynn! If this is your first time perusing my content and you’d like more of my weekly musings, subscribe below:
A big hurrah to alcohol following a weekend celebrating one of America’s favorite holidays for its excessive consumption. In the shadow of St. Paddy’s, I began to ponder a life without hangovers and Gen Z’s predilection toward skipping the bottle.
The cool factor of going sober has not been lost on me as marijuana and microdosing have rapidly displaced booze in tech bro social circles. For Christ’s sake, Marc Andreessen kicked off his substack riffing about going sober. Alcoholic abstinence is going memeably mainstream.
So, I wanted to dig into the data to understand this movement, especially with younger generations. I’m starting to get the sneaking suspicion that boozing might just trend out of our collective conscience as our progeny continues coming to terms with its deleterious effects and physical costs.
I hate to add to Elon’s spotlight, but referring to alcohol as a legacy drug keeps rattling around my noggin because I’m hard pressed to disagree. Alcohol is a cultural institution. From our greatest thinkers to our highest artists, drinking booze has altered minds and driven history. Don’t believe me? What did Jesus turn water into?
It’s deeply ingrained within our social fabric, but this might just be changing. This is my attempt to understand why, and where we might be going.
Alcohol - What It Is, How it Works, How Its Relevant
It’s instructive to preface our study with an aperitif on what alcohol is and how it affects us before knocking back a few shots of data as we stumble our way through the shifting landscape.
What Is Alcohol?
Alcohol as we drink it is ethyl alcohol (ethanol). Chemically, it is a clear liquid at room temperature and has a lower evaporation point than water. There are a few primary mediums for its transportation into our bodies: beer, wine, and spirits. Beer and wine are brewed through the fermentation of grains or fruits, and spirits are derived through the distillation of a variety of base ingredients (grains, fruits, sugarcanes, potatoes, etc.). For beers and wines, the process is more simple and basically consists of adding yeast to grains/fruits to convert their sugars into ethanol. For spirits, similar initial steps are taken to produce a low alcohol mixture which is then distilled through a heating process to separate the alcohol from the water and impurities. In virtually all alcohol production, yeast serves as a key ingredient for transforming sugars into the alcohol which is then refined in a variety of ways.
How Does it Work (within You)?
Once we’ve imbibed, firewater loves to wreak havoc on a variety of our body’s systems. First it hits the stomach where the ethyl is digested into the bloodstream. Once there, the alcohol is pumped throughout the body where it sifts through the brain and is processed by the liver as well as the kidneys.
In the brain, alcohol has a variety of effects. It has a two-fold reaction for diminishing our motor functions. First, ethanol binds to glutamate (a transmitter for exciting neurons), inhibiting its activity and slowing the brian’s response to stimuli. Simultaneously, it also binds to GABA (gamma aminobutyric acid) in the blood and activates the GABA receptors, which leads us to feel calm and sleepy. All the while, alcohol increases the release of dopamine in the brian which results in the ‘buzz’ feeling we enjoy. This is the aspect of the drug that makes it particularly addictive, as its chronic consumption can negatively affect the brain’s reward/pleasure centers.
As for physical effects, booze is a diuretic that leads to increased urination and impaired water retention. This dehydration is complimented by the liver’s production of acetaldehyde (a toxin) as it metabolizes alcohol, both of which contribute to the beloved headaches we attempt to cure with Whataburger. To top it all off, alcohol’s effects on hormones destroy your quality of sleep which combines with the above to leave you feeling groggy and sluggish the next day.
Finally, for the fitness fanatics, aside from being empty calories, alcohol both decreases fat breakdown and increases fat storage (a depressing double whammy). Booze tends to throw your metabolism for a loop as your body perceives it to be the poison that it is, and prioritizes breaking it down over fats, carbs, and proteins. As if this weren’t bad enough, slamming beers also increases cortisol levels, which contributes to the accumulation of belly fat (shoot me).
Not great.
Historical Relevance?
Despite its negative side effects, humans love to drink. As long as we’ve had organized societies, we’ve been leveraging alcohol for its abilities to numb our pain and alter our states of mind. A few examples of its historical relevance:
The oldest verifiable brewery was found near modern-day Israel, with researchers discovering 13,000-year-old beer residue in a prehistoric cave.
If my calculations are correct, that could potentially have pre-dated our domestication of cattle. Wild.
Historic beer production was aided in large part by monks, whose careful record keeping and attention to detail helped to improve its mass production. Under the monastic Rules of St. Benedict, monks were expected to be self-sufficient while providing for traveling pilgrims and donating to the poor. Beer, being often more sanitary than water, provided an excellent way to fulfill all three, as it allowed monasteries to generate some revenue while also providing a means of supplying calories and nutrients to the travelers and poor alike.
The term ‘liquid bread’ also came from monks, derived from the liquid’s nutritional value and similar ingredients to bread. Funny enough, beer was often consumed by monks to sustain themselves through periods of fasting, such as Lent.
Plenty of conflicts have emerged from alcohol’s economic importance…
The Whiskey Rebellion of 1791 was an uprising in the U.S. spurred by the central government’s excise tax on distilling, which it levied in an attempt to pay off debts from the Revolution. Whiskey was a key economic driver in the early U.S. and had actually even been used as compensation for some soldiers during the Revolution, and its taxation resulted in one of the first challenges to the nascent U.S. government. Quashing the rabble rousers helped to cement our fresh government’s legitimacy and spurred discussions about state vs. federal rights.
Funny enough, George Washington himself operated one of the largest whiskey distilleries in early America.
The Champagne Riots of 1911 were fomented by distressed Champagne growers (exacerbated by a number of economic factors- economic downturn, legislation, and downstream consolidation), and resulted in the French government’s demarcation we know today for the region defined as Champagne.
And plenty of cultural icons enjoyed their fair share…
Winston Churchill was a famously heavy lifelong drinker. As a young soldier, he was rumored to have brought 36 bottles of wine, 18 bottles of aged scotch, and six bottles of vintage brandy with him to fight in Africa.
One of his legendary drunken exchanges (likely apocryphal) includes the following zinger:
Bessie Braddock: Winston, you are drunk, and what’s more you are disgustingly drunk.
Churchill: Bessie, my dear, you are ugly, and what’s more, you are disgustingly ugly. But tomorrow I shall be sober and you will still be disgustingly ugly.
Benjamin Franklin’s got a few legendary drinking stories:
At one point, Franklin needed to arm the Pennsylvania Militia he’d organized to defend against French and Indian allies (pre-revolution). After raising the funds, he had to negotiate the purchase of arms from Gov. George Clinton of New York. He recounted:
“He at first refused us peremptorily; but at dinner with his council, where there was great drinking of Madeira wine, as the custom of that place then was, he softened by degrees, and said he would lend us six. After a few more bumpers he advanced to ten; and at length he very good-naturedly conceded eighteen. They were fine cannon, eighteen-pounders, with their carriages, which we soon transported and mounted on our battery.”
Ol’ B.Frank once published “The Drinker’s Dictionary” in the Pennsylvania Gazette, which outlined ~250 synonyms for being drunk
Bangers include: “Got the Glanders” and “Seen a Flock of Moons”
Aside: his biography is 10/10. Audiobook it on your next long drive.
Joseph P. Kennedy (the Kennedy dynasty patriarch) made a fortune importing alcohol coming out of prohibition.
I had always heard the conspiracy that he was a bootlegger, and the combined wealth and mob connections helped place the Kennedys into political office. Then, when JFK put his brother Robert in charge as Attorney General, and he started going after the mob, that led to JFK’s assassination with Lee Harvey Oswald being a ‘fall guy’ and Jack Ruby (a Dallas club owner, and small-time criminal) sealing his silence.
How Are Our Tastes Changing?
Some interesting stats and a new vocab term I learned:
Teetotal (adjective)
Of or relating to, advocating, or pledged to total abstinence from intoxicating drink
Informal. Absolute; complete
Demographics
Some stats from Gallup (s/o Axios for sourcing)
60% of Americans say they drink, down from 65% in 2019
That looks small at first blush, but consider how large that is in the context of the broader population
Average number of drinks Americans consume weekly has fallen from 4.8 (2009) to 3.6 (2021)
Interesting demographic split of % alcohol consumption (2021):
18-34: 60% - Zoomers/Millennials tending to consume less
34-54: 70%
55+: 52%
Teetotal college students jumped from 20% (2002) to 28% (2018)
A couple of pretty stark graphs from a Bloomberg piece on UK / Gen Z Sobriety:
We’re clearly seeing a decline in alcoholic consumption from younger generations. I have a few theories and a few surprises that emerged from this deep dive.
My initial thoughts were a broader correlation with health and wellness trends (see: the rise of mental health, plant-based proteins, etc.), but I wasn’t sure the extent to which that’s merely my myopic worldview and social bubbles. I certainly think that the rise of seltzers, and definitely hard kombuchas (lol), over the last few years fits nicely with this narrative; people enjoyed consuming them as a ‘lighter’ alternative to beer, feeling less bloated and more calorie-conscious. I couldn’t find specific data, but I’m confident going out on a limb as well to speculate a correlation between socioeconomics and/or higher levels of education and declining alcohol consumption, at least in the U.S.
But an interesting avenue for speculation is the confluence of factors that have driven this behavior in Gen Z. The combined effects of financial constraints, social media (both broader educational awareness and self-conscious online image management), and wellness trends all are likely to play a part. Gen Z’s wage compression and diminished purchasing power are weights on disposable income; these introduce a subtle economic pressure on binge drinking for younger consumers. This is layered beneath an ever-present awareness of one’s curated online image that occupies more mindspace in Gen Z, which could certainly result in more cognizance of self control. More broadly though, I think the narrative around health and wellness is a larger factor for Gen Z and consumers more broadly.
Though, the generation behind us Millennials appears to be more risk averse as well, which I found surprising. This extends beyond simply alcohol consumption (thanks BBC):
“[The decrease in alcohol consumption is] certainly not happening because of alcohol policy, because all risky practices are going down – drug use, unprotected sex, risky behaviours [like smoking, crime and driving hazardously] – young people are more risk averse in general,” says Amy Pennay, a senior research fellow at the Centre for Alcohol Policy Research at La Trobe University, Melbourne.
Who’s Filling the Void?
These trends don’t just happen in a vacuum. Mega Corporations and startups alike have both taken notice:
U.S. sales volume for the nonalcoholic versions of beer, cider, ready-to-drink beverages, wines, malt drinks and similar products grew about 25% to nearly $1.2 billion in 2022, according to global beverage alcohol data firm IWSR Drinks Market Analysis. That no-alcohol category is forecast to see volumes rise another 25% between 2022 and 2026. (WSJ)
“At the end of [2021], Bacardi predicted that the low and no-alcohol sector will grow 400% over the next four years” - Drinks International
Correlating with this steady drumbeat of increasing non/low-alcoholic beverage sales has been the funding of startups hoping to dominate this niche:
Funding in the space has gone exponential, and a few players have gained significant footholds. I thought I’d highlight a couple of the larger successes.
Athletic Brewing
Athletic Brewing is one of the breakout stars in non-alcoholic beer. Founded in 2017, the company’s ideation came from Bill Schefelt, a Point72 Trader and ultramarathoner. Bill was searching for better non-alcoholic beer options as he trained for his first ultra and ultimately teamed up with John Walker, an award-winning brewer, to make his idea a reality. The startup has taken the non-alcoholic beer category by storm, growing sales from $2.5M in 2019 to over $37M in 2021 (>13,000% growth in 3 years). The team claims to command an insane 55%+ market share of non-alcoholic craft beer in the U.S.
This smashing success has certainly caught the eyes of major food & bev players, with Keurig Dr Pepper contributing a $50M investment into their most recent round.
Seedlip
Honestly, I’d never even considered the category of ‘non-alcoholic spirits’ (oxymoron?). But it exists, and Seedlip has been rocking it:
“Seedlip retains the top spot [within DI’s Non-alcoholic Spirits Brand Survey] comfortably, the original proving again to be the most popular, with two-thirds of bars that stock a non-alcoholic spirit selecting the Diageo-owned brand as the house pour. It was a top-three serve in almost 80%” - Drinks International
Perhaps no longer considered a ‘startup’ due to Diageo’s majority ownership stake, Seedlip is a premium-priced, non-alcoholic spirit brand producing tinctures marketed as alternatives to gin. It has crafted an elevated brand (reportedly “...served in more than 300 Michelin-starred restaurants” (FT)) and commands a premium price point.
The company is the brainchild of previous teetotal (there’s that word again) marketing executive Ben Branson. It all started when Branson discovered John French’s 1651 book, The Art of Distillation, which outlined a number of herbal remedies that early physicians used to distill. It inspired him to purchase his own still and begin tinkering. Soon thereafter, he was sipping a disappointing mocktail in a London restaurant when inspiration struck.
The botanical brew quickly found product market fit with Ben’s initial thousand bottle launch selling out in three weeks, the second thousand in three days, and the third in a mere 30 minutes online. It seems to have taken off from there. Sales data is scant, but Seedlip claimed to have grown volumes 270% YoY around the time of its acquisition in 2019. Not too shabby for some flower water.
Other Alternatives
It’s a bit much to unpack the litany of alternatives here, but suffice to say that other psychoactive substances are certainly on the rise with Millennial and Gen Z consumers, and are likely contributors to the alcoholic offset.
An interesting idea to ponder is that Gen Z will be the first generation of legal consumption age with widespread marijuana, plus the progressive regulatory loosening on psychedelics like psilocybin. When consumed in comparable dosages to an alcoholic counterpart (apples to oranges, but you get it), these other substances, weed especially, are generally better tolerated and offer more limited side effects. It seems like a no-brainer to me that they would continue to gain ground as their stigmas diminish.
Conclusion 🍻
"P.P.S. Don't you drink? I notice you speak slightingly of the bottle. I have drunk since I was fifteen and few things have given me more pleasure. When you work hard all day with your head and know you must work again the next day what else can change your ideas and make them run on a different plane like whisky?" - Ernest Hemingway, Selected Letters
For me, I’m still in Hemingway’s camp, though the costs mount each day. I’m sure that my declining consumption is in part driven by age. Though I’ve pondered whether it’s actually the increasing severity of hangovers in and of themself that has driven me away from the bottle, or if I’m starting to reach some semblance of maturity where my brain more seriously weighs the cost-benefit analysis of pounding a few brews (maybe that frontal lobe’s finally formed up at the ripe age of 29). I’m uncertain.
What I do know is that the foggy headaches of a ruined Saturday have continued to elevate the bar that makes a night out worthwhile. Coupled with the venomous heartburn habit my body has seen fit to pair with my merlots, the fleeting joys of a bender at the bars are progressively waning.
Beyond my own complaining though, I really think this trend will have broader societal implications. What do cities look like with fewer bars per capita? How do drinking cultures transform over a few generations? Do we simply stand-in the gap with other vices (marijuana?) or is this a broader arc toward sober, healthy living?
Many thoughts and few answers, but hopefully something to ponder with a nice glass of triple distilled botanical medley (garnished with subtle mint and a Kaffir lime peel, of course) this weekend.
And when all else fails,
Cheers,
- W